NEW DELHI: The global average temperature is expected to continue at or near record level and may rise to close to 2 degree celsius (1.2 - 1.9 degree celsius) above the pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) in the next five years, show global climate predictions released by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) on Wednesday.
The report forecasts that the annual averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2 degree C and 1.9 degree C higher than the average of the 1850-1900 levels and there is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024).
Noting increasing climate risks and impacts on societies, economies and sustainable development due to the constant global warming , it also says there is an 86% chance that at least one year will be more than 1.5 degree C above the pre-industrial level.
Though the expected temperature rise of 1.5 degree celsius (and 2 degree celsius) is close to the Paris Agreement threshold, it does not amount to breaching the limit as the threshold is typically measured over a longer period of at least two decades.
“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” said WMO deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett.
The report does not give global predictions for individual years, but it says there is a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 degree C. Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to hold the increase in long-term global average surface temperature well below 2 degree C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degree C.
The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5 degree C may lead to far more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather, and every fraction of a degree of warming matters.
The WMO’s state of the global climate report 2024, released in March, confirmed that 2024 was the first calendar year to be more than 1.5 degree C above the 1850-1900 average, with a global mean near-surface temperature of 1.55 ± 0.13 degree C above the pre-industrial level. It was the warmest year in the 175-year observational record.
The report forecasts that the annual averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2 degree C and 1.9 degree C higher than the average of the 1850-1900 levels and there is an 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024).
Noting increasing climate risks and impacts on societies, economies and sustainable development due to the constant global warming , it also says there is an 86% chance that at least one year will be more than 1.5 degree C above the pre-industrial level.
Though the expected temperature rise of 1.5 degree celsius (and 2 degree celsius) is close to the Paris Agreement threshold, it does not amount to breaching the limit as the threshold is typically measured over a longer period of at least two decades.
“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” said WMO deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett.
The report does not give global predictions for individual years, but it says there is a 70% chance that the five-year average warming for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 degree C. Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to hold the increase in long-term global average surface temperature well below 2 degree C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degree C.
The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5 degree C may lead to far more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather, and every fraction of a degree of warming matters.
The WMO’s state of the global climate report 2024, released in March, confirmed that 2024 was the first calendar year to be more than 1.5 degree C above the 1850-1900 average, with a global mean near-surface temperature of 1.55 ± 0.13 degree C above the pre-industrial level. It was the warmest year in the 175-year observational record.
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